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Expect the Unexpected as Boomers Retire

Some observers fear that the typical behaviors of retirees - in particular, selling out of stock market positions and relocating to warmer climes - spell trouble for the U.S. economy. But what went before is never an advisable measuring stick when it comes to the baby boomer generation, for whom there are no guarantees. Now that the oldest baby boomers are on the verge of retirement, panic has erupted over the future of Social Security - and, albeit more quietly, over the possible effect of workforce change on investment markets. In recent years, most retirees have sold out of stock shares and attempted to generate a flow of current income with low-risk bonds and certificates of deposit. There has also been a trend of downsizing homes, as retirees snap up smaller holdings in regions that are sunnier or, in some cases, closer to family. Some analysts and commentators have tended to assume these trends will continue apace as baby boomers become the retirees of tomorrow. If so, they fear, we may see a bear market accompanied by a radically uneven housing market in which some areas' boom is fed by others' problematic bust. What this envisioning fails to recognize is that baby boomers have turned their entire, collective existence into a kind of homage to the unpredictable and the unexpected. In other words, stock market and real estate investors should hold off on grandiose predictions about the future of the boomer-driven economy. Not only are baby boomers likely to retire at a broader range of ages than did previous generations, but many would argue they are less likely to move into Sunbelt condos when they do. While some boomers may happily follow convention and chase the sun southwards, many are loathe to retreat to age-segregated communities. Most baby boomers think of themselves as eternally youthful, and associate retirement communities and similar living arrangements with a quintessential old age to which they don't relate. So, while some boomers may decide to relocate in retirement - whether for financial reasons or by preference - don't bet on them selecting the same retirement locations that previous generations have populated in their droves. College towns are showing an early lead as destinations of choice, and some boomers are even returning to communities near their alma maters.Further, increased longevity means boomers' parents are living longer. Surviving into one's nineties is no longer unusual, and any baby boomer whose parents live that long are likely to face caregiving issues at any point from their forties to their seventies. Migration upon retirement can be difficult for anyone whose parents are still alive at that stage.So, while baby boomers are certainly getting on in years, the realities and consequences of their retirement are by no means set in stone. Many new trends are already in place and promise to change the way we conceptualize the second half of life.  

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